Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory (0.2% Brackets)

Platform comparison

Market context

Wisconsin holds its Democratic gubernatorial primary on 11 August 2026, with the winner determined by the margin separating the top two finishers. The market brackets this outcome in 0.2 percentage-point increments, allowing traders to isolate precise victory margins rather than binary win/loss positions. Settlement depends on official results from the Wisconsin Elections Commission, with the window closing at 23:59 UTC on 12 August 2026.

Historical Democratic primary contests in Wisconsin show considerable variance in decisive margins. The 2022 gubernatorial race saw incumbent Tony Evers defeat a crowded primary field with a 51-point margin, though that reflected an incumbent advantage. Earlier open-seat primaries—including the 2018 gubernatorial primary won by Evers—produced tighter races where margins fell between 5 and 15 percentage points. The current 0% crowd probability suggests either a highly fragmented field with no consensus frontrunner, or insufficient market liquidity to establish pricing on individual bracket outcomes.

Traders monitoring this market should track candidate announcements and endorsement patterns through spring 2026, as late consolidation around a leading candidate could compress margins substantially. Polling releases from Wisconsin-focused firms will signal field dynamics; early primary states' results in February and March 2026 may influence momentum heading into August. Campaign finance disclosures and voter registration trends in key Democratic strongholds—particularly Dane County and Milwaukee—provide programmatic signals for modelling turnout composition, which directly affects margin distribution across brackets.

Methodology

We track Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory (0.2% Brackets) across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

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