Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is a formal normalisation deal with Israel under the Abraham Accords framework before the deadline, so the practical question is whether any government will publicly sign and acknowledge such an agreement in time. The current **6%** implied probability looks consistent with a low-frequency diplomatic event: these agreements are usually driven by a narrow set of strategic incentives, and they require both sides to be willing to put a named, public signature on the record.

For framing, the best comparables are the original 2020 signatories — the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco — plus later associated cases such as Sudan and Kazakhstan, which show that accession is possible but depends on a clear political opening rather than steady drift. Reuters reported in March 2025 that Donald Trump said more countries could be added, while noting the White House had highlighted Saudi Arabia as a possible candidate and that Riyadh had reservations linked to Gaza.[6] That matters because markets built programmatically around this kind of event usually respond to formal communiqués, not rumours: a trader would watch for cabinet-level statements, White House or State Department read-outs, and any bilateral signing schedule that explicitly uses Abraham Accords language.

From a tooling angle, the cleanest approach is event-driven monitoring rather than narrative guessing. A useful setup is keyword alerts for “normalisation”, “Abraham Accords”, and country names in official channels, then a rules-based filter that only flags items containing both governments’ acknowledgement and a signing date before 2027-01-01T00:00:00Z. Polymarket currently shows Somaliland as the frontrunner at 19% and Jordan at 16%, which suggests the crowd is pricing in countries with either existing quiet contacts or strategic leverage, but the settlement standard remains strict: without a formal, public agreement tied to the Accords, the market resolves No.[1][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.