GPT-6 released by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

OpenAI would need to ship a model explicitly named **GPT-6** and make it publicly accessible before 31 December 2025 for this market to pay out, and the current 0% crowd price reflects how far beyond that date the public record has already moved. OpenAI has said GPT-6 would **not** be released in 2025, and several trackers now note that the late-March 2026 model codenamed “Spud” arrived on 23 April 2026 as **GPT-5.5**, not GPT-6.[5][12][14]

For historical framing, the useful comparison is not the usual model-hype cycle but OpenAI’s pattern of renaming, staging, and reclassifying releases: a frontier system can appear first as an internal codename, then ship under a different product number or family label. That makes simple keyword scraping risky for automated market monitoring; a programmatic workflow should watch OpenAI’s model catalogue, release notes, and chat product announcements for the exact string “GPT-6” plus evidence of open access, rather than treating any new model drop as a win condition.[10][11][12]

The main catalysts are straightforward: a formal OpenAI announcement, a public rollout page, API availability, or broad ChatGPT access before year-end. In practical trading terms, the key dependency chain is compute readiness, safety evaluation timing, and whether OpenAI chooses to preserve the GPT-5 line by labelling the next release as a variant instead of a new generation; post-April reporting on “Spud” showed how easily expectations can be reset by a name change alone.[1][9][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track GPT-6 released by…? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.