"Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at hand is the domestic opening weekend gross of Angel Studios’ historical epic *Young Washington*, which premiered on 4 July 2026 to mark the 250th anniversary of the United States. The film, starring William Franklyn-Miller as the future first president, is scheduled for a three-day run from 3 to 5 July, with final figures to be drawn from The Numbers once studio estimates are replaced by confirmed data[2].

Historically, 4 July weekends for indie releases have been quiet, often allowing a single wide release to dominate the field, as seen when *Supergirl* collapsed 76% in its second weekend while losing to a George Washington-themed film[1]. Early tracking for *Young Washington* suggested an opening between $23 million and $35 million, with some analysts projecting a domestic total up to $145 million, though a Reddit user noted a $20 million budget and guessed a sharper decline after a $20 million opening[3][7]. The current 0% YES probability implies the market expects the film to fall below the lowest bracket, a stance that mirrors past underperformance of historical dramas in crowded summer slots.

Traders should monitor the final 3-day gross posted on The Numbers, the film’s ranking against *Minions & Monsters* and *Toy Story 5*, and any post-weekend adjustments to the domestic total[5]. A recent Deadline preview confirmed the film’s PG-13 rating and 2,700-screen release, factors that could influence repeat attendance[2]. Programmatic approaches would involve conditional orders triggered by the final box office figure, with bots cross-referencing The Numbers and Box Office Mojo to validate the settlement value before execution[8][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.