Total Internet Blackout in Iran by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran has already shown that it can move from throttling to near-zero connectivity quickly, so the practical question is not whether the state *can* impose a blackout, but whether it will again do so before settlement. Historical comparables are stark: nationwide cut-offs were documented in November 2019, during the January 2026 protests, and again from late February 2026 during wartime conditions, with monitoring groups and reporting describing traffic collapsing to around 1% or less of normal levels for extended periods.[7][8][11][16][17] For a programmatic approach, that history matters because the market’s settlement rule is mechanical: a six-hour run at or below the Cloudflare threshold is enough, so an automated watcher on the Cloudflare Radar bytes chart is more useful than trying to infer sentiment from headlines.[1]

The main catalysts are political and security decisions rather than ordinary network faults. Traders should watch for renewed domestic unrest, arrests, protest waves, military escalation, and any formal messaging from Iranian authorities about “security” or “temporary” communications limits, because those have preceded past outages.[1][3][13] Recent reporting in 2026 described internet restrictions as part of both protest suppression and wartime response, with access falling to about 1% of pre-war levels and shutdowns persisting for weeks or months.[11][14][15][17] For a copy-trading or conditional-order workflow, the useful signals are not price ticks but event triggers: sudden traffic collapse, ISP route withdrawal, and any coordinated nationwide restriction affecting both mobile and fixed networks.[4][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

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