WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

WTI crude oil futures are trading near the mid-70s, so the market resolves on whether the August settle finishes above the selected strike, not on intraday spikes. Current reporting shows front-month WTI around $74.4-$74.6, while the contract’s settlement method is the nearest listed month rolling forward before expiry, which is what programme-driven traders need to map into their rules and data feed logic.[1][6][7]

Recent comparables help explain why the implied 0% YES can persist if the strike sits above the prevailing close: WTI has just been in a three-day slide as easing Middle East supply fears reduced the risk premium, with Reuters-derived coverage noting WTI at $74.63 and below $75 on 5 August.[6] At the same time, public price pages have shown material dispersion across sources and timestamps, which is a reminder that automated strategies should use the market’s exact settlement source rather than a generic spot quote.[1][2][3]

For catalysts, traders should watch the next US petroleum inventory releases, any OPEC+ commentary, and headlines on Strait of Hormuz shipping, because those are the kinds of inputs that can move the front month quickly enough to change a close-above outcome.[6][19] In a hands-on workflow, that usually means polling a live futures feed, comparing it with the market’s strike, and triggering conditional orders only after the relevant settlement window and contract roll rules are satisfied.[7][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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