Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: AG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs JD Gaming (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs JD Gaming (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs JD Gaming (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-3.5) vs JD Gaming (+3.5) | 0% |
Market context
All Gamers meet JD Gaming in the VCT China Stage 2 Play-Ins upper-bracket semifinal, a best-of-three that is already live in the bracket and therefore mostly a question of execution rather than qualification. For programme-driven trading, the cleanest read is to treat the market as a live event contract keyed to match completion: if the series starts and finishes, the winner resolves the market; if the fixture is abandoned, delayed beyond seven days, or otherwise unresolved, it goes 50-50 under the rules.
The current crowd price at 100% for All Gamers looks anchored to the recent head-to-head and bracket context. Polymarket’s own market text says All Gamers swept JD Gaming 2-0 in their April Stage 1 group-stage meeting, while JD Gaming’s route into this round came from a 2-1 win over FunPlus Phoenix in the Play-Ins, where they dropped the opener and recovered across the next two maps. Comparable cases in this event have shown that a team reaching the upper-bracket semi after a narrow 2-1 is not automatically re-priced as a dominant favourite, so a 100% print usually reflects either thin liquidity or an aggressively one-sided order book rather than an uncontested handicap.
For a trading stack, the practical catalysts are straightforward: check official broadcast and bracket updates for start-time slippage, map veto confirmation, roster changes, and any pause or forfeit language that could affect settlement. GosuGamers lists the fixture as live, which is useful for automation because it confirms the match exists as an active series rather than a speculative pairing, while Liquipedia and tournament pages are the quickest cross-checks for whether the upper-bracket path is intact. In programmatic terms, this is the sort of market where you would watch for state transitions — scheduled, live, completed, cancelled — more closely than you would model map-level edge.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade Valorant: All Gamers vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China … on Polymarket Review UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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