Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Zero Tenacity (+1.5) | 100% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 90% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 90% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 10% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 35.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
Market context
Zero Tenacity face LGD Gaming in a best-of-three playoff tie at the Games of the Future Dota 2 event, with the published start time listed around 14:00 UTC on 2 August 2026. Multiple match trackers show it as a live or upcoming playoff series, while the market’s 0% crowd price suggests traders are either misreading the matchup or anchoring too heavily to an extreme favourite without updating for actual series state.[1][2][3][8]
Programmatically, this is the sort of market to treat as a schedule-and-status problem first, not just a team-strength bet. Comparable listings give LGD the edge on rankings and vote share, but the market only resolves on the match outcome, with a 50-50 fallback if the game is cancelled, tied, or delayed beyond seven days; for a bot or conditional order, the main control variables are whether the series has officially started, whether it reaches completion, and whether the event feed changes status from upcoming to live to final.[3][6][8][10] Recent match pages also note the tournament is being played in Astana with a sizeable prize pool, which makes late-stage roster or bracket dependencies more relevant than in routine online fixtures.[13][17]
For a power-user workflow, the key catalysts are official bracket updates, any revised start time, and whether the organisers keep the series on the published slot or shift it inside the playoff window. The available live pages already diverge on exact local timing, which is a practical reminder to watch the authoritative tournament or score-provider feed rather than a single odds screen before triggering entries or automated hedges.[1][5][9][13]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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