Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 35.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
Yellow Submarine are playing Vici Gaming in a best-of-three Group A match at the Games of the Future Dota 2 event, a format that means the market only resolves on the series winner unless the game is abandoned, tied or left unfinished beyond the stated window. Live trackers show the match has already been scheduled and listed as live, with one source also showing the series scoreline in progress, so a programme or bot that keys off official status feeds rather than the pre-match price is the cleaner way to manage conditional orders and settlement logic[1][2][11].
On comparable reads, the market should not be treated as a pure ranking gap bet. Vici Gaming is listed higher in third-party team ratings and was the clear pre-match favourite on multiple prediction and odds pages, while Yellow Submarine had stronger recent short-run results on some trackers and no recent head-to-head history against Vici Gaming in the prior six months[3][4][5][9][11]. That combination matters for automated trading because short-format Dota 2 can move quickly on draft quality, early kills and map one momentum, and the crowd price at 0% YES leaves no cushion if the favourite takes control early[3][4][11].
For a hands-on workflow, the main catalysts to watch are match start confirmation, any official delay notice, and whether the series reaches a completed map count before the settlement deadline. If the event slips, is paused, or is reported inconsistently across live score providers, the 50-50 fallback rules become relevant, so a trader watching programme alerts would want redundant checks across tournament listings and live match feeds rather than relying on a single scoreboard[1][2][7][11].
Methodology
This page reviews Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - Games of the Future Group A across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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