Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Match Winner | 13% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 1% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs GLYPH (+1.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
GLYPH and PlayTime are due to play a best-of-three quarter-final in the Games of the Future playoffs, so the cleanest reference point for a trader is the series outcome rather than map-by-map volatility. The market’s current 0% YES pricing is hard to reconcile with the pre-match picture elsewhere: live match pages list the fixture as scheduled for 05:00 UTC, and aggregated preview data has treated it as a live quarter-final rather than a cancelled or unresolved pairing.[2][6][8]
For comparable context, GLYPH edged PlayTime 2-1 in their only prior meeting in April, which gives at least one head-to-head datapoint, but it is a small sample and not strong enough on its own to anchor a programme or copy-trading rule.[2][9][16] Pre-match views are mixed: Strafe’s preview gave PlayTime a narrow crowd lead, while dltv’s match page showed GLYPH with a slight winrate edge and recent wins over Zero Tenacity, which helps explain why a mispriced 0% can be dangerous if your tooling is set to fade stale quotes rather than chase them.[2][14][15]
The practical catalysts are straightforward: confirmation that the series starts on time, whether the official broadcast goes live, and any bracket reshuffle or delay notice from the organiser, because an unplayed or heavily delayed match would push the market towards the 50-50 fallback rather than a side win.[2][17] For automated setups, this is the sort of event where a bot should watch the live series state and settlement-clock deadline, not just the scoreline; if the match begins but is abandoned, the resolution rules change materially compared with a normal completed BO3.[2]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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