NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the Democratic primary for New York’s 12th Congressional District seat, scheduled for 23 June 2026, where voters will select the nominee to contest the 2026 House election. The market currently assigns a 1% probability to any single candidate winning, reflecting the crowded field of at least seven contenders, including Micah Lasher, Jack Schlossberg, and Alex Bores, as confirmed by the tentative contest list from the NYC Board of Elections[2][3].

Historically, similar open primaries in dense urban districts like NY-12 have produced low-concentration outcomes, with no single candidate exceeding 30% of the vote in recent cycles, making a 1% implied probability consistent with past volatility. For instance, in the 2024 NY-10 primary, six candidates split the vote with no clear frontrunner until late October, mirroring the current uncertainty[4]. Programmatically, traders should model this as a conditional order scenario, using bots to execute copy-trading strategies only after official nomination announcements from democrats.org, rather than betting on pre-primary polls[1].

Key catalysts include the finalisation of the candidate list by 15 June, any withdrawal notices before the primary, and the release of early polling data from Kalshi or Ballotpedia, which could shift implied probabilities significantly[3][5]. A recent New York Times analysis notes that Republican control of the House at 217–212 seats may intensify Democratic turnout, but district-specific dynamics remain unpredictable[5]. Traders monitoring this market should track FEC campaign finance filings for NY-12 to gauge fundraising momentum, as strong financial backing often correlates with nomination success in competitive primaries[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Review UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.