The International 2026: Winner

Platform comparison

Market context

The International 2026 is the Dota 2 world championship, scheduled for 13-23 August 2026, and this market resolves on the team that finishes first on Dotabuff’s official outcome record. At a crowd-implied **8%**, the price is treating the field as wide open rather than anchoring on a single dominant favourite, which is typical for a title event where one patch read, one bracket run, or one stand-in situation can swing the whole board quickly.[1][2]

For historical framing, the useful analogue is how TI winner markets tend to cluster around a small set of contenders while still leaving meaningful tail risk across the rest of the field. Pre-event simulation work published around TI 2026 placed Team Yandex, PARIVISION, Aurora Gaming and Team Falcons in the leading group, with Team Liquid and Team Spirit further back, while live market snapshots showed several teams bunched around the mid-single digits rather than one runaway leader.[2][3][6] For a programmatic approach, that means the 8% line is less a pure championship forecast than a compact summary of bracket variance, patch adaptation and roster stability.

The main catalysts to watch are roster confirmations, final patch notes, the draw or seeding format, and any late schedule changes before the tournament starts; those are the inputs that can force the sharpest repricing in automated models and conditional orders. If the event fails to produce an official winner by 6 September 2026, the market resolves to **Other**, so traders running bots should also hard-code the deadline and the tie-break rule, since alphabetical precedence is the fallback in a dead heat.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track The International 2026: Winner across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

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Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.