July Inflation US - Annual

Platform comparison

Market context

US inflation for the 12 months to July 2026 will be set by the BLS CPI print released on 12 August, with the headline figure reflecting the change in the all-items index versus July 2025. For programme-style trading, that means the cleanest input is the year-on-year reading in the BLS release, not the monthly move, and any bot or conditional order should be keyed to the exact publication time and the market’s settlement convention rather than the underlying index level itself.

The present 2% YES implies a very low chance of an annual rate anywhere near the market’s strike area, which is easier to assess against the recent inflation path than against older, dislocated prints. CPI was 4.2% year on year in May 2026, then eased to 3.5% in June, while Reuters noted that this was the first monthly decline since April 2020 and that core CPI also cooled to 2.6%[8][15]. That sequence leaves the market effectively pricing a continuation of disinflation into July, but with only a small tail risk assigned to a sharper re-acceleration.

Traders will be watching the July BLS schedule, the final pre-release estimates from banks and data services, and any late moves in energy or shelter-sensitive components, because those can shift the annual rate even if the monthly change looks benign. Cleveland Fed nowcasting and private previews have pointed to headline inflation remaining around the mid-3% area for summer readings, while Reuters reported in mid-July that economists expected June’s easing to keep policy pressure lower[2][8]. In a hands-on workflow, that usually means monitoring the official release timestamp, comparing the reported 12-month figure against the market’s strike, and avoiding dependence on third-party forecasts once the BLS number lands.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.