Highest temperature in Seoul on May 30?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's maximum temperature on 30 May 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against historical data from Weather Underground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, requiring traders to lock positions before the final afternoon hours when peak temperatures typically occur in late May. This timing creates a practical constraint: real-time temperature feeds must be monitored through the morning and early afternoon to capture the daily high before resolution.

Historical May temperatures in Seoul cluster between 24–28°C for daily highs, with occasional outliers reaching 30°C during early heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a cooler outcome or insufficient liquidity drawing traders into the market. Comparable late-May forecasts from prior years show high sensitivity to subtropical pressure systems moving northward from the Pacific; a single system can shift daily maxima by 4–6°C within 48 hours. Traders building conditional orders should reference the Korea Meteorological Administration's extended forecasts, which typically become reliable 10–14 days ahead.

The primary catalyst remains the East Asian weather pattern in mid-to-late May 2026. Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, monsoon onset timing, and Tibetan high-pressure positioning all influence whether Seoul experiences typical spring conditions or early summer heat. Automated systems tracking GFS and ECMWF model consensus would need to refresh daily from approximately 15 May onwards, with particular attention to 500hPa geopotential height anomalies that signal sustained warm-air advection into the Korean peninsula.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on May 30? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.