Next Prime Minister of Slovenia

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Slovenia’s next parliamentary election is due on 22 March 2026, and the market pays out on whoever is formally elected by the National Assembly and sworn in as prime minister afterwards. For users running scripts or conditional orders, the key distinction is between a caretaker administration and a sworn-in government: interim continuity does not count, and the contract only settles once the constitutional process is complete. With a settlement window that runs well beyond polling day, the position can remain open through coalition bargaining, so programmatic traders typically track both the election result and the subsequent investiture timetable rather than treating election night as the finish line.

The latest election context points to a fragmented parliament, which is the main reason a 0% implied chance on one outcome should be read cautiously. Slovenia’s 2022 vote produced a hung parliament and a coalition-led outcome after negotiation, not an automatic transfer of office, and the 2026 contest is expected to be similarly tight. Recent reporting from the Robert Schuman Foundation noted that no major bloc is likely to secure the 46 seats needed for a majority, while Wikipedia’s election summary shows the top two parties separated by less than one percentage point. In a market setup, that usually favours monitoring coalition arithmetic, not just party vote shares.

The practical catalysts are the formal election schedule, post-election coalition talks, and the National Assembly vote to appoint the prime minister. Traders will usually want alerts on party leadership statements, any pre-election alliance announcements, and signs that a bloc can command 46 seats. If the largest list cannot assemble a governing majority, the field can remain live for weeks, and a late compromise candidate may become the only path to resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Next Prime Minister of Slovenia on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.