Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 9 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved via Wunderground history. This single data point determines whether the market settles on a specific temperature range, with the current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggesting traders expect the temperature to fall outside the offered range.

Historically, July is Shanghai’s hottest month, with average highs near 87°F (30.6°C) and frequent peaks exceeding 35°C (95°F) during sunny spells[3][5]. Past records show summer highs regularly surpassing 30°C, making a 0% probability for a moderate range statistically unusual unless the range is set too low or too high relative to typical extremes[5]. A power-user would programmatically query Wunderground’s daily archive for ZSPD to back-test similar dates and validate whether the implied probability aligns with climatic norms[7].

Traders should monitor real-time forecasts for convective activity, as thunderstorms can suppress peak temperatures despite high baseline heat[4]. Recent AccuWeather data indicates a high of 90°F (32.2°C) for 9 July with high clouds and breezy conditions, which may limit the maximum temperature[4]. Dependencies include the official resolution time (12:00 UTC) and the Wunderground data feed’s reliability; any delay or gap in the archive could invalidate the settlement[1]. A conditional order strategy would trigger only if live temperatures breach 33°C before noon, ensuring alignment with the resolution window.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.