Highest temperature in Seoul on May 31?

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Market context

Seoul's weather on 31 May 2026 will be measured by the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport's weather station throughout that calendar day. The settlement mechanism relies on historical data pulled from Weather Underground, requiring traders to verify the exact observation methodology and timezone handling—Incheon operates on Korea Standard Time (UTC+9), which matters for any automated data feeds or conditional orders triggered on temperature thresholds.

May in Seoul typically sits in the warm-to-hot range, with historical highs around 28–32°C depending on atmospheric patterns. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish baseline pricing. Comparable May 31st observations from prior years show variability: the 2023 high was 29.2°C, whilst 2022 recorded 26.8°C. This historical spread of roughly 2–3°C between years indicates meaningful uncertainty that should reflect in non-zero probabilities across adjacent ranges. Traders building algorithmic approaches should cross-reference Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) historical datasets alongside Weather Underground's archive to identify any systematic differences in station reporting.

The primary catalyst is the East Asian monsoon transition phase occurring in late May, which can shift Seoul's weather from dry spring patterns into early rainy season conditions. Subtropical high-pressure systems competing with maritime moisture create the main driver of daily temperature variance. Traders monitoring programmatic resolution should note that Weather Underground's historical data updates with a lag; verifying the exact timestamp of the highest recorded temperature and confirming the station's operational status on 31 May becomes critical for dispute avoidance.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.