Highest temperature in Seoul on June 4?

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Market context

Seoul's weather on 4 June 2026 will be measured by the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport's official weather station throughout that calendar day. The settlement mechanism relies on historical data archived by Weather Underground, which maintains continuous temperature logs accessible via their daily history interface. Traders will need to verify the Celsius setting on the platform's temperature toggle to avoid unit conversion errors when cross-referencing the recorded high against the market's temperature bands.

Early June in Seoul typically sits within a warm, humid transition period before the monsoon season intensifies. Historical data from Incheon Airport shows June highs averaging 25–27°C, with occasional spikes to 29–30°C during anticyclonic conditions. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity drawing traders to this particular market. Comparable June days at this station provide a baseline: reviewing five-year patterns on Weather Underground's historical records reveals that temperatures exceeding 32°C on this date are rare, whilst readings below 20°C are uncommon.

Traders automating position monitoring should flag the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 4 June, which occurs mid-morning Korean Standard Time. Any weather alerts from the Korea Meteorological Administration issued in the preceding week—particularly heat wave warnings or frontal system disruptions—would shift expected ranges. API-based tracking of Incheon Airport's live station data in the 48 hours before settlement offers the most reliable programmatic approach, as Weather Underground's historical archive updates with official readings once the day concludes.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.