Highest temperature in Seoul on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s highest temperature on 12 July 2026 is being measured at Incheon International Airport, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that day’s peak reading. Today, aviation data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows a maximum of 31°C recorded so far, with settlement closing at 12:00 UTC [5]. The current 0% YES probability implies the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the defined range, likely below the lowest bracket offered.

Historically, mid-July in Incheon sees mean temperatures near 24.4°C with daily maxima often reaching 30–33°C, making a sub-26°C peak unusual but not impossible during cloudy or rainy spells [7]. A comparable case occurred on 9 July 2026, when Seoul’s high settled at 26°C, trading at 34.5% probability before resolution [2]. That outcome suggests traders should treat 26–28°C ranges as plausible even when current odds appear dismissive, especially if cloud cover persists.

Programmatic traders should monitor real-time feeds from Wunderground and the KMA aviation page, automating checks every 15 minutes until settlement [1][5]. Key catalysts include afternoon cloud persistence and any sudden rain showers, which can cap temperatures below 30°C. With today’s forecast showing clear skies and a 31°C maximum, the primary dependency is whether the 31°C reading holds or if a late-cloud surge pushes it higher [10]. Conditional orders should trigger only if Wunderground updates confirm a drop below the market’s lowest bracket before 12:00 UTC.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.