Highest temperature in Paris on May 31?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport will record a daily maximum temperature on 31 May 2026. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data pulled from Weather Underground's archive for that specific station, with the final reading locked at 12:00 UTC on the settlement date. For traders building automated resolution pipelines, the data source is stable and accessible via direct URL inspection, though the platform requires manual temperature unit conversion through its settings interface—a consideration for bot-based monitoring workflows.

Late May in the Paris region typically sees highs between 20–24°C, with occasional warm spells pushing toward 28°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market is calibrated against an unusually narrow or high temperature band; comparable May 31st readings from the past decade cluster around 21–23°C, with only rare instances exceeding 25°C. Historical volatility in late spring European weather patterns means even a moderately warm day could shift outcomes significantly if the threshold is set above typical seasonal norms.

Traders monitoring this market should track European weather forecasting updates from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in the week preceding settlement. High-pressure systems moving across western Europe in late May could drive temperatures upward, whilst Atlantic low-pressure systems would suppress them. The conditional dependency here is straightforward: the market outcome hinges entirely on a single meteorological reading, making it suitable for direct weather-model integration into trading algorithms rather than multi-factor analysis.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on May 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Review UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.