World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup will generate a count of *in-play* penalties that are either saved or missed, excluding shootout kicks. That structure makes the market easier to model than a generic “penalties scored” prop: the variable is not just how many spot-kicks are awarded, but how often keepers save them or takers miss the target under normal match conditions. A low single-digit YES price implies the market is leaning towards a modest tournament total, which is consistent with penalties being event-driven rather than steadily accumulated across fixtures.

Historically, World Cup penalty frequency is lumpy. Some tournaments produce a handful of successful spot-kicks with very few failures, while others swing on a small number of high-pressure episodes late in knockout games. Opta’s World Cup penalty-shootout data also underlines how conversion weakens as pressure rises, but that is only partly relevant here because shootouts are excluded from settlement.[8] For a programmatic trading approach, the cleaner method is to track awarded penalties match by match, then separately classify each as scored, saved or missed using official match reports and event feeds; the market’s YES side only benefits from the latter two outcomes.

The main catalysts are fixture volume, knockout intensity and officiating context. FIFA’s 2026 law implementation changes include more VAR checks for goals, penalties and related incidents, which can affect how often spot-kicks are awarded or reviewed, even if they do not change the settlement rule itself.[1] The practical dependency for traders is the tournament schedule and which matches go to extra time, because only penalties taken before a shootout count. If the tournament is shortened or ends early, the contract falls back on completed-match data, so automated monitoring should be set to official FIFA match reports rather than relying on live commentary alone.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.