Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 24?

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Market context

On 24 May 2026, Tokyo's lowest temperature will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and measured in Celsius. The current 2% crowd probability suggests traders expect the daily minimum to remain above a specific threshold—likely in the range of 15–18°C based on typical May conditions in the Tokyo metropolitan area. This implies confidence that late spring temperatures will not dip into unusually cold territory for the season.

Tokyo's May climate has shown consistent patterns over recent decades. Historical data from Japan Meteorological Agency records indicate that daily lows in late May typically range between 14–18°C, with temperatures below 10°C occurring in fewer than 5% of years. The 2% probability on this market suggests the crowd is pricing in an exceptionally cold scenario—perhaps a late-season cold front or unusual weather system. Traders evaluating this contract should cross-reference the Japan Meteorological Agency's seasonal forecasts and compare against May temperature distributions from the past 20 years to calibrate whether the implied probability reflects genuine tail-risk conditions or market mispricing.

For programmatic traders, the key dependency is the Japan Meteorological Agency's medium-range forecast issued in early May 2026, which typically provides 10–14 day outlooks with reasonable accuracy. Wunderground's historical data feed updates daily and becomes finalised after the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 24 May. Conditional order logic should account for forecast updates from 15–20 May, when predictability for late-May weather improves substantially. Any announced upper-atmospheric patterns—such as a northward-displaced jet stream or blocking high-pressure system—would serve as material signals for position adjustments.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.