Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's summer temperatures in mid-July typically range between 29–33°C, with overnight lows rarely dropping below 25°C during the peak monsoon season. The lowest temperature recorded on any given day in July is determined by the Hong Kong Observatory's automated weather stations and published in their daily climate extracts. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains the absolute daily minimum for 13 July 2026, measured to one decimal place in Celsius.

Historical July data from the Observatory shows that daily minima in the territory cluster heavily in the 24–27°C range, with sub-24°C readings exceptionally rare outside typhoon events or unusual atmospheric conditions. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in near-zero likelihood of an outcome at the extreme cold end of available ranges, reflecting the seasonal norm. Comparable markets on Hong Kong summer temperatures have typically seen resolution in the middle-to-warm bands, with cold-weather outcomes requiring significant weather disruption.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Hong Kong Observatory's severe weather alerts and tropical cyclone forecasts for the week preceding settlement. The Observatory publishes daily climate data with a lag of several days; the final temperature reading becomes available once the "Daily Extract" for 13 July is released and verified. Automated feeds from the Observatory's public API can be integrated into conditional order systems to trigger positions once historical data confirms the resolved temperature band, though settlement timing depends entirely on the Observatory's publication schedule rather than real-time conditions.

Methodology

We track Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.