Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's lowest daily temperature on 11 August 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract dataset, measured to one decimal place in Celsius. This metric captures the absolute minimum reached during a calendar day, typically occurring in the early morning hours. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, though the Observatory's official data release may occur later, creating a dependency on their publication schedule.

August is Hong Kong's peak summer season, with mean daily minima around 26–27°C and virtually no historical precedent for temperatures below 20°C during this month. The 0% crowd probability reflects this seasonal reality: August lows in Hong Kong have not fallen below 22°C in recorded history. A trader automating resolution checks would need to monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's climate data portal rather than real-time weather feeds, since the settlement hinges on their finalised Daily Extract record, not live station readings.

Programmatically, this market functions as a data-retrieval exercise with minimal uncertainty around the underlying event itself. Conditional order logic would flag any outcome below 22°C as a statistical anomaly requiring manual verification against the Observatory's source. The primary catalyst is the Observatory's data publication timing; traders relying on API integrations or bots should account for potential delays in the Daily Extract update cycle, which typically occurs within 24–48 hours of the observation date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.