Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wuhan will experience peak summer heat on 17 August 2026, and this market captures the highest temperature recorded at Tianhe International Airport Station that day. The settlement mechanism relies on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary—a distinction that matters when automated systems pull data. For programmatic traders, this means validating the exact source field before settlement, as discrepancies between summary and granular observation tables have historically caused disputes in weather markets.

Wuhan's August temperatures typically range between 32–36°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 38–40°C during heat waves. Historical data from 2015–2024 shows that mid-August peaks cluster around 34–35°C in most years, though the 2022 summer saw sustained readings above 37°C across central China. The current 0% probability on higher ranges suggests the crowd expects a typical rather than exceptional day, though this baseline shifts significantly if regional heat alerts are issued in the weeks preceding settlement.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released 7–10 days before 17 August, which typically signal whether Yangtze River basin heat domes are developing. Real-time dependency lies with the East Asian summer monsoon pattern—if the North Pacific subtropical high pressure system stalls over central China, temperatures could spike into the 37–39°C bands. Weather Underground's station data updates daily; setting conditional orders against their API endpoint allows traders to capture threshold breaches automatically as the settlement window approaches.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.