Highest temperature in Wellington on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 30 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. With the crowd-implied probability for any specific range sitting at 0% YES, the market currently treats the outcome as effectively impossible to predict within the offered brackets, suggesting the resolution range may be misaligned with realistic June highs or the probability is simply underpriced due to low liquidity.

Historical data frames this probability starkly: June at Wellington typically sees average daily highs between 54°F and 57°F (12°C to 14°C), with overcast conditions common about 42% of the time[4]. However, recent records show Wellington has already beaten its maximum June temperature, recording over 19°C earlier in the month[6], which contradicts the 0% probability if the market brackets include higher ranges. A programmatically minded trader would script a bot to pull Wunderground’s hourly data for the past five June 30ths, calculate the mean and standard deviation, and back-test whether the current 0% pricing reflects a genuine outlier expectation or a data error in the resolution brackets.

Traders should monitor MetService NZ’s daily forecasts and any sudden shifts in wind patterns, as south-south-westerly winds at 24 mph currently suppress temperatures to 15°C[1]. The key catalyst is the official 24-hour high temperature release on 30 June, which will be the sole settlement source; conditional orders should be placed to hedge against the 19°C anomaly if the forecast trend reverses toward warmer conditions. Recent news from MetService confirms the record-breaking warmth, making the 0% probability a potential mispricing if the market brackets include temperatures above 14°C[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on June 30? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.