Highest temperature in Wellington on June 24?

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Market context

The real-world event centres on the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 24 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. A programmatically minded trader would treat this as a conditional order tied to a specific timestamp, querying the Wunderground API for the daily maximum at the NZWN station and comparing it against the market’s resolution thresholds. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the “YES” outcome suggests the market expects the temperature to fall outside the defined range, likely below the lower bound.

Historical data frames this expectation: June at Wellington typically sees average highs drop from 57°F to 54°F (14°C to 12°C), with overcast conditions prevailing 42% of the time [2]. Even in record-breaking years, such as when Wellington exceeded its maximum June temperature with over 19°C on 1–2 June [4], temperatures rarely sustain extremes. Today’s observed high is 15°C [1], consistent with seasonal norms. This pattern indicates that a temperature significantly above the market’s threshold is statistically improbable, reinforcing the 0% probability.

Traders should monitor MetService NZ forecasts and real-time Wunderground updates for any sudden shifts, particularly if southerly winds weaken or cloud cover clears unexpectedly. While no major weather announcements are scheduled, the dependency on precise API data means any delay or discrepancy in Wunderground’s reporting could affect resolution. Recent forecasts for June 2026 show highs ranging from 51° to 61°F (11°C to 16°C), with an average of 55°F (13°C) [6], further supporting the low probability of an outlier event.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.