Highest temperature in Wellington on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 21 July 2026, with resolution based on Wunderground’s daily high for NZWN. Today, current conditions show 15°C with strong south-south-westerly winds and rising pressure, typical of mid-summer in Wellington’s coastal climate [2]. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for any outcome above the frontrunner suggests the market has already locked in a specific range, likely reflecting the prevailing cool, windy pattern.

Historically, Wellington’s July highs rarely exceed 16°C, with most days clustering between 10°C and 14°C due to persistent maritime influence and frequent westerly flow. The current frontrunner at 12°C aligns with this long-term median, making higher outcomes statistically improbable without a sudden shift in atmospheric dynamics [3]. Programmatic traders should model this as a low-variance event, using historical Wunderground archives to back-test threshold triggers rather than chasing tail-risk outcomes.

Key catalysts include real-time wind speed deviations and pressure trends, as a drop below 990mb or a wind shift to north-westerly could push temperatures higher. Traders monitoring API feeds should watch for sudden changes in the 24 mph wind speed currently recorded, as a sustained decrease often correlates with warming spells in this region [2]. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but local meteorological bulletins from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) remain the primary dependency for unexpected shifts.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.