Highest temperature in Wellington on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Celsius temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 20 July 2026, with resolution sourced from Wunderground’s daily history. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a “YES” outcome on any specific high-temperature threshold reflects a consensus that extreme warmth is unlikely, aligning with mid-summer winter conditions in New Zealand where daytime highs typically range between 10°C and 15°C[1][2].

Historical patterns for Wellington in July show consistent coolness, with seasonal outlooks for May–July 2026 indicating temperatures near or below average across the west of the North Island, alongside possible cold snaps under high-pressure systems that bring frost and fog[3]. This climatic baseline explains the market’s pricing: the frontrunner outcome is 12°C at 100% probability, while ranges like “6°C or below” sit at 0%, confirming that traders view sub-12°C peaks as the norm rather than the exception[1].

Programmatically, a trader would script a bot to poll Wunderground’s hourly NZWN station data every hour on 20 July, comparing live readings against predefined thresholds to trigger conditional orders before settlement at 12:00Z. No external catalysts like policy announcements or economic schedules influence this event; the only dependency is real-time atmospheric data, making automation the most efficient approach for capturing mispriced ranges before the window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.