Highest temperature in Wellington on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington's highest temperature on 14 July 2026 will be recorded at the airport station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. July sits in Wellington's winter season, when daily highs typically range between 8–13°C, though the city's exposed location and variable maritime climate mean single-day extremes can deviate significantly. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, requiring traders to account for the fact that the full day's high may not be confirmed until after market closure in some regions.

Historical July temperature records for Wellington show a ceiling around 17–18°C on warm winter days, with sub-zero lows common on clear nights. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an expectation of unusually cold conditions or uncertainty about the data source's accessibility. Wunderground's historical records for NZWN (Wellington International Airport) are publicly queryable and have remained stable, though traders building automated resolution workflows should verify the URL structure and gear-icon toggle for Celsius conversion, as interface changes occasionally affect scraping reliability.

Programmatic traders monitoring this market should establish alerts tied to New Zealand MetService forecasts, which typically issue 10-day outlooks by early July. The Southern Hemisphere winter pattern—particularly the phase of the Southern Annular Mode and any passing cold fronts—will be the primary driver of whether temperatures breach the higher ranges. Real-time temperature feeds from aviation weather stations (METAR data) can provide intraday confirmation before Wunderground's daily summary publishes, allowing conditional orders to execute based on observed highs rather than forecast uncertainty.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on July 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.