Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Warsaw will experience some temperature on 27 July 2026, and this market resolves to whichever range bracket contains the highest reading recorded at Chopin Airport that day. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning the final temperature figure must be locked in by that point. Resolution depends entirely on historical weather data from Wunderground's archive for that specific station and date.

July temperatures in Warsaw typically peak between 20–27°C, with occasional spikes into the low 30s during heat waves. The city's 30-year average high for late July sits around 24°C. Examining comparable years reveals the range: 2010 saw 29°C on 27 July, whilst 2015 recorded 26°C and 2019 hit 28°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a narrow band or sparse liquidity; traders building conditional orders should anchor expectations to the 24–28°C zone as baseline, with upside risk if Atlantic blocking patterns develop across central Europe in mid-to-late July.

Monitoring European weather forecasts from mid-July onwards becomes essential for positioning. The UK Met Office and ECMWF model runs, typically updated twice daily, will signal whether high-pressure systems stall over Poland or Atlantic systems push through. Any forecast showing sustained 30°C+ readings two weeks prior would shift market expectations materially. Programmatic traders can automate Wunderground API checks post-resolution to verify settlement accuracy, though manual verification against the station's official records remains prudent given the binary nature of temperature brackets.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.