Highest temperature in Toronto on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Celsius temperature recorded at Toronto Pearson International Airport on 15 July 2026, with settlement confirmed via Wunderground history. Although the current interface displays a 100% YES probability for a generic outcome, the underlying distribution favours specific ranges: 32°C holds a 38% implied chance, while 31°C follows at 29% [1]. This split suggests the crowd is not certain on a single value, making the binary "YES" label potentially misleading for algorithmic traders who need precise range probabilities to execute conditional orders or copy-trading strategies effectively.

Historically, mid-July in Toronto often sees peaks between 30°C and 33°C, with cooling centres frequently deployed when temperatures approach record highs [3]. The current probability distribution reflects this volatility; rather than a flat certainty, the market prices a tight contest between 31°C and 32°C. A power-user evaluating this tooling should note that the 100% figure likely represents a placeholder or a specific binary condition that does not capture the granular uncertainty visible in the frontrunner data, which is critical for building accurate prediction bots.

Traders must monitor real-time meteorological feeds from the Pearson station as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 15 July, watching for sudden shifts in humidity or wind that could alter the peak by a single degree. The resolution source is fixed to Wunderground’s daily history for CYYZ, meaning any discrepancy between live forecasts and the archived maximum will determine the outcome [1]. Programmatic approaches should ingest this specific URL to validate the final number against the market’s range definitions, ensuring automated positions close correctly before the deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Toronto on July 15? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.