Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the official daily high temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on 9 July 2026, resolved via Wunderground data. Historical patterns for early July in Tokyo show highs routinely exceeding 30°C, often climbing above 35°C, with the plum rainy season lingering through the first half of the month and bringing roughly ten rainy days [2]. Given that the current crowd-implied probability for a specific 29°C outcome sits at 0%, this aligns with the typical thermal profile where 29°C is unusually cool for mid-summer Tokyo, making it a statistically improbable exact hit compared to the more common 30–35°C bands [1].

Traders approaching this programmatically should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily observations and Wunderground’s real-time feeds for any deviation from the seasonal average, particularly as cloud cover or rain from the lingering rainy season could suppress temperatures unexpectedly [2]. A key catalyst is the scheduled weather forecast updates from the Met Office, which currently predict a maximum of 30°C for 9 July, suggesting the market’s 0% probability for 29°C may be underestimating the chance of a slight dip due to early-morning cloudiness or precipitation [7]. Conditional orders should be triggered by live temperature drops below 29°C in the early hours, as Haneda’s coastal location can amplify cooling effects compared to inland Tokyo stations [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.