Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the peak daily temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 7 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. A power-user evaluating this tooling would approach it programmatically by scraping historical Wunderground data for Haneda’s July highs, then back-testing resolution logic against known weather anomalies to validate conditional order triggers.

Historically, Tokyo Haneda’s July maximums cluster between 25°C and 30°C, with recent records showing peaks near 30°C in 2024 and 27°C in 2023. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any outcome is inconsistent with market frontrunners on Polymarket, where 26°C holds 50% and 25°C holds 30%, suggesting a data lag or misalignment in the displayed probability. Comparable cases from AccuWeather’s July 2026 forecast for Haneda show daily highs ranging from 76°F to 91°F (24°C to 33°C), reinforcing that extreme cold is implausible and the 0% figure likely reflects a technical error rather than meteorological reality[6].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s weekly heat advisories and any scheduled maintenance at Haneda’s weather sensors, as these dependencies directly impact data integrity. A recent report from the agency noted Japan’s warmest day ever hit 41.2°C in Tamba City, underscoring regional volatility but not invalidating Haneda’s typical summer range[8]. Programmatically, one would set alerts for Wunderground’s daily update timestamp and cross-reference with Met Office’s 7-day forecast for Haneda, which currently projects a 27°C maximum daytime temperature[3]. No moralising is needed: the facts show the 0% probability is anomalous, and the market’s resolution hinges on reliable, timely data from a single source.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.