Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak temperature at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 6 July 2026, with settlement tied to Wunderground’s daily high for that station. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, yet the frontrunner outcome is 26°C at 59%, followed by 25°C at 20%, indicating the market expects a warm day well above the 0% threshold for any “YES” condition that might be misread as a binary event [1][4].

Historically, mid-to-late July in Tokyo routinely sees highs of 36–40°C with humidity exceeding 95%, turning the city into a concrete jungle where peak heat occurs between 11 AM and 6 PM [2]. Even Haneda, slightly coastal, follows this pattern: July 2026 forecasts show daily highs from 76° to 91°F (24–33°C), with overnight lows of 68–78°F [6]. The 2025 national record of 41.2°C in Tamba City underscores the volatility, though Haneda’s urban-coastal mix typically caps peaks below 35°C unless a strong heatwave hits [7][9].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s heatwave advisories and real-time Wunderground feeds for RJTT, as sudden shifts in Pacific high-pressure systems can spike temperatures within hours [5][10]. Programmatically, one would script a bot to poll Wunderground’s hourly data for RJTT every 15 minutes from 00:00 UTC, flagging deviations above 26°C, and auto-execute conditional orders if the live high breaches the 25°C threshold before 12:00 UTC settlement [1][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.