Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo Haneda’s top temperature for 23 July is fixed by the highest hourly or sub-hourly reading recorded before the market’s noon UTC cut-off, so the practical task is to track the airport station feed rather than Tokyo as a whole. For a programmatic workflow, that means polling the Wunderground daily history page for RJTT, extracting the day’s maximum in Celsius, and checking whether the value falls into the contract’s settlement band; a 0% YES price usually signals either a formatting issue, stale liquidity, or a market that is already effectively impossible to hit under the available range logic rather than a meaningful weather forecast.

Historically, Tokyo’s late-July highs are driven by the regional summer pressure pattern, with the biggest jumps usually coming when clear skies, light winds, and strong continental heat build over the Kantō plain. For a trader using bots or conditional orders, the relevant analogue is not the city’s broad forecast but the airport-specific maximum, which can diverge from central Tokyo by a degree or more on hot, still afternoons. The cleanest read is to compare model output against observed airport conditions and treat the market as a single-location daily extreme, not a city average.

The main catalysts are the morning forecast updates, any heat advisories from Japan Meteorological Agency bulletins, and the timing of cloud cover, sea breeze onset, or late convective development near Haneda. If a front, typhoon remnant, or afternoon shower band is near the area, the ceiling on the day’s maximum can be cut quickly even when morning temperatures are already high. In practice, a power-user would script alerts around forecast revisions, watch the airport METAR trend, and only place conditional orders after the short-range temperature path is clearer.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.