Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's maximum temperature on 14 July 2026 will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, creating a hard deadline for data capture. Traders integrating this market into algorithmic workflows will need to account for the timezone offset (Japan Standard Time, UTC+9) and the specific monitoring station's microclimate, which can differ materially from central Tokyo readings due to proximity to tarmac and maritime influence.

July in Tokyo typically sees highs between 32–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heatwave conditions. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or sparse liquidity. Historical July records at Haneda show variability: the station recorded 37.5°C on 23 July 2019 and 36.4°C on 14 July 2013, establishing that mid-range outcomes (33–36°C) are statistically modal. Traders should cross-reference Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal forecasts and any El Niño or atmospheric pressure anomalies flagged in the months preceding July 2026.

For programmatic approaches, the Wunderground API permits automated daily scraping post-settlement, though manual verification against JMA records remains prudent given occasional discrepancies in station reporting. Conditional order logic should account for the possibility of data delays or corrections within 48 hours of the settlement window. The gear-icon toggle between Celsius and Fahrenheit conversion is essential for avoiding calculation errors in automated resolution checks.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.