Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak daytime temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 10 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius by Wunderground. Historical July data for Haneda shows daily highs typically ranging between 26°C and 32°C, with recent Met Office forecasts indicating a maximum of 32°C and overnight lows near 26°C[4]. Comparable cases from past summers reveal that temperatures in the low 30s are standard for mid-July in Tokyo, often accompanied by high humidity and daily rain or cloud cover[9]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for “26°C or below” aligns with this pattern, as the market’s frontrunner is 31°C at 38%, followed closely by 30°C at 34%, suggesting traders expect a warm day well above the lower threshold[2].

A power-user evaluating this market programmatically should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily weather bulletins and Wunderground’s real-time hourly updates for Haneda, as these are the definitive resolution sources. Recent news from the agency confirms Japan experienced its warmest day on record in Tamba city at 41.2°C, underscoring the potential for extreme heat spikes even if Haneda remains slightly cooler[6]. Traders must also watch for scheduled typhoon warnings or sudden shifts in monsoon patterns, which can drastically alter temperature trajectories within hours. Thin volume and a fragmented bracket structure in the market mean that small data updates could trigger sharp price movements, requiring automated bots to react swiftly to Wunderground’s latest readings[10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.