Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s reading will be the day’s **highest temperature at Haneda Airport**, so the relevant question is not the noon snapshot but the eventual intraday peak recorded before the settlement cut-off. August is Tokyo’s hottest month on climate averages, with typical highs around 31°C and many daily maxima clustering in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, which makes a 0% YES price look aggressive if the market is targeting a narrow or very hot band rather than simply any plausible summer temperature.[3][9][10][12]

For framing, historical baselines point to a city that frequently reaches the 30s in August, and the long-run record shows Tokyo has exceeded 37°C before, with weather-history data citing a 37.3°C all-time high for August 1994.[2] JMA monthly normals for Tokyo’s daily maximum temperature were 34.4°C in August 2025, versus 26.2°C in July 2026 to date, which underlines how quickly the month can produce materially hotter outcomes than early-summer readings.[7] For a programmatic approach, traders typically map the market’s payout buckets to a forecast distribution over the day’s maximum, then update from live hourly observations rather than one-off forecast headlines.

The key catalysts are heat advisories, cloud cover, rainfall timing, and typhoon-adjacent moisture, because any of these can cap daytime heating or shift the peak earlier. August in Japan is also a volatile rain-and-heat period, with outside guides flagging frequent humidity, showers and typhoon risk, while current forecast pages show Tokyo’s short-term highs sitting in the high 20s to high 30s Fahrenheit-equivalent range depending on day and hour.[8][16][17] For tooling, the practical watch-list is the hourly forecast feed, radar, and any official JMA warnings; conditional orders can be tied to forecast thresholds, but the market will still settle on the actual Haneda observation, not model output.[11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.