Highest temperature in Taipei on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

The key variable is the maximum temperature at Taipei Songshan Airport on 24 July, with the market settling to whichever Celsius band contains that day’s recorded high. For a programmatic workflow, the relevant live input is the Wunderground daily history page for RCSS; a bot can poll that source, map the observed maximum to the market’s outcome bins, and compare it with the current book before any late-morning re-pricing. The market is already heavily skewed towards a cooler result, with the leading outcome at 35°C on 25% and 32°C on 19%, while the crowd-implied 0% YES indicates the current trade is not being priced as a broad affirmative on the event as framed.[1]

Taipei’s July climate is typically hot, humid and rain-prone, which makes the upper end of the distribution less dependent on a single clean-sky forecast than on cloud cover and afternoon convection. Published July climate guides describe frequent rain, high humidity and daytime highs clustering in the low 30s °C, with July averages around 33°C in some forecast datasets and heavy rainfall common across the month.[2][3][4] For traders, that means historical framing matters: on many summer days the realised high sits close to the low-to-mid 30s, but showers or persistent cloud can cap the peak below the most crowded bin. A power-user approach is to compare the market’s bin probabilities against the station’s recent daily maxima, then use conditional orders around the highest-probability bands rather than treating the market as a binary yes/no.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.