Highest temperature in Taipei on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei Songshan Airport recorded its peak daily heat on 20 July 2026, a metric this market resolves against using Wunderground’s historical data for that specific station. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any outcome suggests a mispricing or a technical glitch, as July is consistently Taipei’s hottest month with a daytime average high of 34°C [3]. Historical patterns indicate that temperatures rarely dip below 28°C during this period, making the 0% probability for lower ranges statistically anomalous against the seasonal baseline [3].

Programmatic traders should script a scraper to monitor the Wunderground daily history page for RCSS, checking for the maximum Celsius value once the settlement window closes at 12:00:00Z on 20 July 2026. The primary catalyst is the official weather station log itself, which acts as the sole dependency for resolution, rather than external announcements or schedules [1]. Given that the frontrunner outcome is currently priced at 35°C with 100% probability on the exchange interface, automated arbitrage bots will likely flag the 0% implied probability as an immediate execution target once the data feed confirms the seasonal norm [1].

Current conditions at the airport show cloudy skies with temperatures around 31°C, reinforcing that a sub-28°C peak is highly improbable for mid-summer in this region [2]. Traders evaluating this tooling must verify the Wunderground link directly, as the resolution source is strictly the highest temperature recorded for all times on that day [1]. The discrepancy between the 0% market probability and the 34°C historical average creates a clear utility case for conditional order strategies that bet on the seasonal mean rather than the crowd’s erroneous zero-implied stance [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.