Highest temperature in Taipei on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Celsius reading at Taipei Songshan Airport on 13 July 2026, with settlement tied to Wunderground’s daily history for that station. A 0% crowd-implied probability for any “YES” outcome suggests the market expects the temperature to fall outside the defined range, likely because historical July peaks at this site consistently exceed typical thresholds.

Historical data frames this expectation: July is Taipei’s hottest month, with an average high of 92°F (32°C) and recorded extremes reaching 39.7°C in recent years, the highest in 124 years [2][6]. On 13 July 2014, the station recorded a warm low of 32.0°C, indicating sustained heat through the night [1]. These cases suggest that any narrow range below 35°C would be highly improbable, aligning with the current 0% probability.

Traders should monitor real-time forecasts from the Central Weather Administration and Wunderground updates for 13 July, particularly cloud cover, humidity, and wind shifts that could suppress peaks [7][9]. A recent Taiwan News report noted Taipei hit 39°C in July, setting a new monthly record and underscoring the volatility of summer heatwaves in the region [3]. Programmatically, one would query Wunderground’s hourly history API at settlement, filter for RCSS station data, and map the max value to the market’s resolution ranges.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Taipei on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.