Highest temperature in Taipei on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the peak temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data shows that July falls squarely within Taipei’s hot season, which runs from early June to mid-September, with average daily highs consistently above 87°F (30.6°C) [2]. In recent years, Taipei has experienced extreme heat spikes, including a record 39.7°C in 2021—the highest in 124 years [9], and a blistering 38.3°C in May 2026, the hottest May day since records began [8]. Given that current crowd-implied probability for any specific temperature range is 0% YES, this likely reflects uncertainty about the exact resolution band rather than disbelief that high temperatures will occur; July in Taipei is reliably hot, often reaching 35–38°C.

A power-user approaching this market programmatically would monitor real-time Wunderground feeds for the Taipei Songshan Airport station, cross-referencing with CWA (Central Weather Administration) alerts for heat advisories or monsoon shifts that could suppress peak temperatures [3]. Key catalysts include the timing of afternoon convective rain, which is common in July and can cap highs despite intense morning sun [1], and any official announcements from Taiwan’s environmental agencies regarding heatwaves or air quality. Recent forecasts for 1 July 2026 predict highs near 95°F (35°C) with afternoon rain and a 40% precipitation chance [1][5], suggesting that while heat is certain, the exact peak may be moderated by cloud cover and rainfall. Traders should watch for updates from Wunderground hourly data and CWA wind-speed observations, as sudden shifts in wind direction or humidity could alter the final recorded maximum [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Taipei on July 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.