Highest temperature in Singapore on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Singapore’s afternoon peak at Changi on 27 July is typically a narrow-range outcome rather than a dramatic spike, which makes the exact bracket more useful than the headline probability. July in Singapore usually sees daytime highs no higher than about 34°C, with the market’s current crowd view clustered around 30–31°C, consistent with a humid equatorial climate where daily maxima often sit in the low 30s rather than far above it.[1][2]

For a power-user, this is the sort of market that lends itself to simple programmatic checks rather than heavy discretionary interpretation. A basic workflow would pull the latest weather readings and compare them with the remaining intraday heating window, then update probability weights against the available outcome buckets; because resolution is tied to the highest temperature recorded for the full day at Singapore Changi Airport Station, the key dependency is whether late-morning or early-afternoon warmth gets translated into the day’s final maximum rather than any single forecast value.[1] The current 0% YES price is therefore less a statement that the temperature cannot land in-range than a sign that the market is still early or that liquidity is thin relative to the bucket set.[1]

Traders should watch Singapore’s short-term forecast updates, cloud cover and rainfall timing, and the airport-station observations that will ultimately matter for settlement. In practice, the highest reading often depends on whether convective showers arrive before the daily peak, so any programme built around this market should treat forecast refreshes and live station data as the main inputs, with alerts set for changes in the 30–34°C band rather than for exact point estimates.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Singapore on July 27? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.