Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event centres on the highest temperature recorded at Singapore Changi Airport on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. This single daily peak determines the market resolution, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 1 July 2026. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a "YES" outcome suggests traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specific range being wagered on, likely due to historical norms.

Historical data frames this probability sharply: July in Singapore typically sees average highs of 31°C (88°F) and lows of 24°C (75°F), with heat indices hovering near 41.5°C [1]. BBC Weather observations for Changi Airport on 1 July 2026 recorded 28°C at 01:00 BST, rising to 30°C shortly after [2]. The climate is consistently oppressive and overcast, with daily highs rarely exceeding 31°C and overnight lows staying above 24°C [3][5]. These stable patterns mean extreme deviations are improbable, making a 0% probability for an outlier range a rational assessment based on comparable cases.

Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground updates and National Weather Service timeseries for WSSS, as sudden thunderstorms or hazy conditions could alter the peak temperature [1][6]. Recent forecasts indicate daily highs between 29°C and 32°C (85°–90°F) for July 2026, with no major weather announcements expected to disrupt this range [5]. Programmatic approaches would involve scraping Wunderground’s hourly data for WSSS and triggering conditional orders if the temperature breaches the market’s threshold, ensuring execution before the 12:00 UTC settlement deadline. Dependencies include cloud cover and humidity levels, which directly influence the heat index and peak reading.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.