Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen will experience its peak July heat today at the Bao’an International Airport station, with the market betting on whether the highest temperature falls into a specific Celsius range. The settlement hinges on the single maximum reading recorded by Wunderground for 13 July 2026 at this location, a data point programmatically accessible via their daily history API for automated scraping and conditional order execution.

Historically, July is the hottest month at this airport, averaging a high of 32°C (89°F), with past extremes frequently breaching 35°C under clear skies [1]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the market expects the temperature to fall outside the offered range, likely because recent forecasts indicate a maximum of only 33°C today due to incoming heavy rain and cloud cover [2][10]. This divergence from the seasonal average frames the 0% probability as a reaction to immediate meteorological suppression rather than a disregard for Shenzhen’s typical summer intensity.

Traders monitoring this market programmatically should watch the real-time METAR updates and hourly Wunderground feeds for any sudden clearing of the heavy rain forecasted for Monday night and morning [3][10]. The primary catalyst is the persistence of this precipitation; if the rain clears before the afternoon peak, temperatures could spike rapidly toward the historical mean, invalidating the current low probability. Automated scripts should poll the Wunderground history endpoint every 15 minutes to capture the final maximum before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.