Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s airport weather is still deep in the city’s hot season, so the settlement question is whether the day’s *single highest reading* at Bao’an Airport breaks into the upper part of the usual August range. Historical August climate data cluster around the low 30s °C, with average highs near 32°C/89–90°F, while record summer peaks in Shenzhen have reached the high 30s °C and even 38°C/100.4°F in some climate compilations.[4][7][8][17] That makes the current 0% YES price look disconnected from the seasonal baseline rather than a signal that a cooler outcome is likely; a programmatic trader would usually treat this as a data-quality or market-mispricing check rather than a temperature call, then model the event against the settlement source’s exact airport station reading.[1][8]

For a hands-on workflow, the key inputs are the live forecast for Shenzhen Bao’an and whether the airport itself gets brief convective heating, sun breaks, or a late-afternoon spike that can lift the daily maximum above nearby city averages. August in Shenzhen is also one of the wetter, more humid periods, with frequent rain and typhoon influence, and forecasts for Shenzhen in August commonly show highs in the high 80s to low 90s °F with occasional days touching the mid-90s °F or higher.[8][16][19] For anyone routing this through bots, conditional orders, or copy-trading logic, the operational check is simple: watch the airport-specific forecast, not the city average, and re-query the Wunderground history page for the station close to the settlement window because a small intraday shift in the max can move the outcome across temperature bands.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.