Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station will fall within one of several defined ranges. The market resolves using the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than the Day High & Low summary section—a distinction that matters when automated systems or manual data entry produce discrepancies between the two datasets. Traders automating resolution checks should flag this source hierarchy explicitly in their conditional order logic to avoid settlement disputes.

Shenzhen's August temperatures cluster reliably between 28–34°C, with extreme highs occasionally reaching 35–36°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past five years shows that temperatures above 36°C occur in roughly 8–12% of August days at Bao'an, whilst readings below 28°C are rare. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market may be pricing in either an unusually cool August or reflects low liquidity rather than genuine forecast confidence. Comparable markets on Shenzhen summer temperatures have typically seen probability distributions skew toward the 30–33°C range, making outlier ranges (both high and low) undervalued relative to climatological frequency.

Traders monitoring this market should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for regional temperature bands. Tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during late July and early August can suppress temperatures, whilst high-pressure systems from the north drive heat spikes. Real-time humidity and pressure data from Bao'an itself will be the most reliable leading indicator; automated feeds from Weather Underground's API can be integrated into backtesting models to assess historical forecast skill for this specific station.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.