Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s airport temperature on 1 August is usually set by a hot, humid southern China summer pattern, with typical August highs around 32°C to 32.2°C and daily highs often near 90°F, while historical summaries show the month can still produce sharper spikes into the mid-30s Celsius. The market settles on the *highest* reading recorded at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport Station before the noon UTC cutoff, so a programmatic approach should prioritise intraday maximums rather than the final hourly value or daily mean. [2][10][5]

The current 0% yes price is hard to reconcile with the climate baseline, because August in Shenzhen is normally warm enough that the relevant bucket should usually be somewhere in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius, with some years pushing materially higher. Comparable climate references put early-August average highs around 90°F to 97°F, and historical August records include highs above 100°F, which means the market is more about how hot the day gets at the airport than whether it is cool enough to stay in a low bracket. [1][4][9]

For traders using bots or conditional orders, the practical inputs are weather-triggered risks rather than macro headlines: overnight cloud cover, monsoon showers, and any typhoon-related disruption can suppress or, in some setups, briefly intensify the daytime maximum before the settlement window closes. Because the resolution source is Wunderground’s Shenzhen airport history page, a rules-based workflow should monitor the station feed directly and map the latest observed max temperature into the relevant Celsius range as soon as it updates, rather than relying on broader Shenzhen forecasts or city averages. [17][19][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.