Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 30?

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Market context

Shanghai's daily maximum temperature on 30 May 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data via Wunderground. Late May sits within Shanghai's late spring period, when daytime highs typically range between 28–32°C, though occasional heat waves can push readings above 35°C. The settlement mechanism relies on a single, verifiable data point from a major airport weather station, making this market suitable for automated resolution feeds and conditional order logic tied to historical temperature thresholds.

Historical May temperatures in Shanghai show clustering around 29–31°C as the modal range, with extremes recorded between 25°C and 37°C across the past two decades. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific range being tested or the market has insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Comparable markets on daily temperature extremes typically see probability shifts only when seasonal forecasts shift or when real-time weather models converge on anomalous patterns weeks ahead.

Traders monitoring this market should track China Meteorological Administration seasonal outlooks and subseasonal forecasts released in April and early May 2026, which flag whether the Yangtze River Delta region faces above-normal or below-normal temperatures. Wunderground's historical data feed updates daily, allowing programmatic monitoring of comparable airport stations (Hongqiao, Nanjing) to calibrate expectations. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 30 May, giving traders a narrow window to adjust positions once morning temperatures are recorded but before the final daily maximum is confirmed.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 30? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Review UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.